weekly monday housing data check-in

Looks like listings have pulled back a little over the past 2 months. The latest numbers from housingtracker.net show there are 47,960 listings in the Riverside-San Bernardino MSA which is down almost 2000 from the 49,907 listings in the 1st week of march. Does this mean that inventory will continue to decrease? Or is it just that there is a glut of REOs out there that the banks havent gotten around to selling and/or marking down to realistic prices and selling yet? The median listing price is unchanged from last week although the 75th percentile and 25th percentile both took about a $5k hit likely due to REOs on the bottom end and people getting real about their “high end” properties at the top end.

Looking in recent sales data from trulia.com, properties have been selling at a fairly decent pace all things considered, so there are indeed buyers swooping in and snatching up properties at the current prices. Personally I would be waiting until at least mid to late 2009 before touching anything.

I would like to see these trends (price and inventory stabilization) continue for at least another couple of months before I get too excited about any sort of “bottom”. I put bottom in quotes because it is well known that the Alt-A and Option ARM crisis is just around the corner for 2009-2011 so we could potentially see a short-term levelling off and then another big drop in values and a big spike in inventory when that happens.

Looking on the bright side, the median price here in the IE is still 44% lower than the median price in the OC ($529,900) so we’re still a bargain to those OC first time homebuyer and “move-up” buyer types!


~ by razor on May 6, 2008.

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