i really hope these guys are wrong

I must say I’ve been a little obsessed with the situation with oil right now. Prices seem to be taking on a life of their own. Depending on who you believe this is due to pure speculation or its due to global demand outstripping supply or due to price manipulation. Regardless of the cause, oil is so critical to our way of life in the US that this is impacting everything. Stacks of SUVs piling up at local dealers, lots more compact cars on the road and the price of everything that is transported anywhere (aka everything) is rising. Personally I have cut down on anything non-essential and have sold my V6 sporty car and got a civic.

As we quickly approach $5/gallon here in California, what will this mean for the value of the housing in suburban and exurban areas such as Eastvale? There are clearly not enough jobs locally so people are forced to drive to Orange County or LA county every single day. To combat the rising cost of my own commute I’ve started taking the train every day. Not everyone works within a reasonable distance from the very few train lines though so this is not a solution for everyone. What will we do when gas costs $10/gallon?

In terms of oil supply and the future I really hope these guys are wrong:


If you look at the peak oil theory, the world doesn’t even need to run out of oil for there to be major calamity:




~ by razor on June 10, 2008.

5 Responses to “i really hope these guys are wrong”

  1. I don’t believe the basic assumptions are wrong, but the assumptions of doom and gloom may be stretched and a lot of the effects can be mitigated. The stacks of SUVs and the coming vacancy in the low-desnity exurbs will just be evidence for how the past 60 years have pretty much been the worst allocation of resources in history. Adjustments can be made, but policy must act fast and public sentiment must change or we will see severe problems.

  2. agreed. I can’t wait for a usable electric car. Although I worry that eventually electricity costs will also go nuts making it also unsustainable. We need more renewables like wind and solar but they require huge investment and where will the money come from?

  3. I think the money can come from the private sector as the price of solar and wind becomes competitive due to fossil fuels becoming more expensive and renewables becoming less expensive. There are two possibilities, one is to maintain a grid with these new sources, the other is to have people buy solar panels and supply power off-grid, possibly even feeding it. Solar water heaters could also be useful for offsetting fossil fuel requirements, Hawaii now requires them. As for electric cars, as long as they aren’t charged between 2-7, the peak times of electricity demand, you could power a whole lot of them without increasing capacity all that much. The only way to do that would be to add some sort of “smart chip” to the cars to prevent charging at those times. Really, I think the idea of the personal automobile has been stretched a bit, and hopefully we can adjust to a society less dependent on it. If we don’t adjust, it may just be forced out of our lives.

  4. I just hope that solar technology gets cheaper and the technology advances. It seems SLOOOOOOW. Much like what has happened with battery technology over the years. Its a herculean effort to make what appear to be incremental improvements. We need to go parabolic on the yield curve for photovoltaics in order for it to become more economical in a reasonable amount of time…

  5. or possibly parabolic on the price curve for fossil fuels?

    that’s already happening. energy will never be as cheap as it once was, the renewables will come out the cheapest because they will be nowhere near as “scarce”

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